To the question of the possibility of predicting the risk of pregnancy loss in the early stages

This study was conducted to determine the risk factors and their prognostic significance as predictors of early pregnancy loss.

Materials and methods. Retrospective study examined 214 data patients: social factors, information about obstetric and gynecological history, extragenital diseases, results of clinical and laboratory, instrumental examinations, features and complications of a real pregnancy. To predict we used Bayesian model with A. Wald analysis, calculating prognostic coefficients significant factors identified during the study and their informativeness were assessed by E.V. Gubler and S. Kulbak methods. Predictive coefficients of aggressive and protective factors affecting the peculiarities of the course and termination of pregnancy. Study results. Retrospective review of medical records allowed determine 14 risk factors for early gestational loss: the patient's age is 29 years or more, tobacco smoking, non-developing pregnancy, spontaneous abortions and ectopic pregnancy in history, early loss in the unborn, inflammatory diseases of the genitals, cytomegalovirus infection, one or more C-sections history, organ surgery abdominal cavity, obesity, uterine fibroids, planned in vitro fertilization. With taking into account the identified factors, a prognostic model was compiled, which allows for 95% accurately calculate the prognosis of the course of pregnancy. Based on the obtained values prognostic coefficients formed a table of pre-ravidar assessment of the risk of loss in early dates of gestation.

Conclusion. The study made it possible to identify risk factors and calculate them prognostic significance in the realization of early pregnancy loss. Created the prognostic table allows in the pregravidar period to formulate an accurate forecast in the ratio of early pregnancy losses and, if necessary, a rational pregravidar preparation. 

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